The annual report issued by the International Energy Agency looks into the trends of the global economy and where it’s going as well as any upcoming economic, technological, or policy developments. Projections are made as part of the report that show what trends will drive our energy usage moving forwards and this year, according to the report, we are about to embark on an explosion in the use of renewables. This boom is expected to take off massively, and figures suggest that by 2040 renewables will be the world’s largest power source.
This year’s report included scenarios that the IEA had created to give a glimpse of what is to come in 2040. It starts off by examining the present and highlights the fact that carbon emissions have remained constant for several years now, even as the economy has grown. Other good points mentioned in the report include the increase in the number of electric vehicles now on the road as well as a decrease in the subsidies allowed for fossil fuels (now at $325 billion). On the flip side, subsidies for renewables increased to a whopping $150 billion, making them the largest source of new generating energy in 2015.
But, it’s not all roses, unfortunately. Statistics suggest that by 2040, demand will have increased by 30 percent and therefore all power sources (except coal) are likely to expand. However, 60 percent of the $44 trillion to be invested in energy economy until 2040 will go towards fossil fuels. Let’s take a brief look at the future of individual power sources:
- Coal: Coal use will drop dramatically worldwide and be replaced by renewables. Coal plants will become abandoned in developed countries but as prices drop developing countries will make use of it, and the focus of coal use will shift to places such as Africa and Asia.
- Oil: Oil will still be around for quite some time as the shift to electric vehicles will take decades and is therefore needed largely in the transport sector.
- Natural Gas: Under current policies, this is the only fossil fuel energy source that is predicted to grow. By 2040 it’s expected that a 1.5 percent increase in natural gas will occur.
- Nuclear: It’s probably the most debated energy source out there. But, based on current trends, nuclear power use is likely to decrease across the US and Europe, but increase in China.
- Renewables: The cost of renewables is constantly dropping and by 2030 both wind and solar power are expected to be competitive in China and India without any subsidies. The growth of this sector is only limited by how quick we want to decarbonize electricity and how much overcapacity we’re happy to build.
- Water: It may seem like a small amount, but currently around 4 percent of the world’s electricity consumption is used for supplying or purifying wastewater. The IEA predicts that by 2040 this will increase quite significantly and more than 15 percent of the electricity used in the Middle East will be for the delivery of clean water.
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